Good News for People Who Love Bad News

A baseball season is like a long novel with interweaving plot lines that unfold as the weeks go by. Things can get so complicated that it’s easy to lose sight of all that’s happened and all that’s yet to come. February and March were marked by a tumultuous spring training in Viera that ended with more questions than answers for the Nats. Now that midseason has arrived, it’s time to take a look at how last spring’s plot lines have unraveled and identify the new plot lines for the second half of 2006. The immediate prognosis is not good.

The Team’s Performance

What We Know: The team is dismal. The Nats are 38-52 and in last place in the NL East. The starting pitching is in shambles and the bullpen is crumbling fast. Jose Vidro, Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Alfonso Soriano have fared well at the plate, but everyone else has been a disappointment. Jose Guillen is in a Guzman-esque funk. The bench is generally better than it was last year, but Matt LeCroy and Damian Jackson are eating up roster spots that could be used to evaluate prospects.

What We Don’t Know: Stan Kasten has promised to trade veterans and rebuild the minor league system. It remains to be seen which veterans will be traded and for whom. The team immediately needs an everyday player in center field and a viable shortstop to retain any semblance of competitiveness during Reconstruction.

The Big Questions: Who will be traded? Can one of the center field fill-ins step up and win the job?

My Take: Ugh. I’m actually looking forward to October and getting this mess of a season behind us.

Stadium Fights

What We Know: The fight between the D.C. Council and MLB was the defining issue for the franchise in the off-season. The rhetoric between the two sides grew increasingly vitriolic as fall turned to winter, and the Council barely passed the stadium legislation in early March. While the franchise’s long-term future in D.C. is secure, the fights over the stadium are far from over.

What We Don’t Know: Although ground has been broken for the new park, the fighting hasn’t ended. The stadium fight de jour is the question of whether to build VIP parking garages above ground as planned, or below ground to make more room for Applebee’s, Johnny Rocket’s, TGI Friday’s and other bland, ghetto-fabulous fare. The new owners of the Nationals are unwilling to pay extra for subterranean garages and determined to avoid any additional construction that would hinder the park’s projected 2008 opening. Mayor Williams has, of course, offered a compromise that would feature parking garages above condos and retail. Good luck with that, Tony.

The Big Question: Will the garages be built aboveground, underground, or will the Mayor’s compromise take flight?

My Take: Who cares? The garages are only for the wealthiest fans. Plebes like you and I will be parking in privately owned garages blocks away or taking the Metro. I agree that underground garages would be nice and improve the area aesthetic a bit, but once I’m inside the park I won’t be able to see the garages. Despite what some self-entitled fans think, the Lerners are under no obligation to pay for underground lots. This issue will soon blow over and we’ll be on to the next stadium fight, which I predict will center on inevitable budget overruns.

Alfonso Soriano

What We Know: The once-maligned second baseman turned left fielder had the baseball world holding its breath in March when he briefly refused to take the field in Viera. Many feared that a crisis would result between baseball and the player’s union if Soriano refused to play a new position. Fortunately, Soriano relented and has become one of the most popular and effective players on the team. His defense in left field has been acceptable, and he’s been the Nationals’ only true power threat at the plate. His tenure in Washington is probably drawing to a close as the July 31 trading deadline approaches, despite his recent claims that he’d like to stay in Washington.

What We Don’t Know: The Soriano trade buzz in the media has become somewhat more muted in recent weeks, leading some to believe that he will simply be allowed to walk for draft picks. Soriano is hunting for that big mid-career contract and the Nats are hunting for prospects, so any team that takes him will have to pay dearly.

The Big Question: Will Soriano be traded or not, and if so, for whom?

My Take: The common logic is that Soriano will be traded to a contender who needs a big bat. The problem is that he’s looking for a long-term contract at a time when many contenders are looking for a half-season rental. Soriano is not a strong defensive left fielder or a second baseman, so any team that takes him will have to make a tradeoff between a (presumably) superior defensive incumbent and Soriano’s bat. I’m not sure how many teams will want Soriano so badly that they’ll trade top prospects and absorb a multi-year contract and poor defense for his services. Bowden doesn’t have as much trade leverage with other teams when it comes to Soriano as many people think. This will be interesting to watch.

MASN/Comcast Situation

What We Know: All manner of threats, incentives and shame has been brought to bear on both MASN and Comcast and yet the sides are no closer to a resolution. Congress, the D.C. Council, and the FCC have all taken non-binding action to get the sides to agree, but to no avail. 2 million Comcast customers in the D.C. area remain unable to watch Nationals games on TV.

What We Don’t Know: The dispute between the two sides shows no signs of ending.

The Big Questions: When will Comcast customers be able to watch Nationals games? What will the Lerners do to resolve the situation? What will become of MASN and Comcast SportsNet?

My Take: Congress and the rest of the powdered wigs in the area can threaten and plead all they want. This situation will finally be resolved simply because there is money on the table and both sides stand to profit. I envision some kind of merger of MASN and Comcast SportsNet. The Lerners will probably have to guarantee a large chunk of the Nationals TV revenue to Peter Angelos to get him to sell/lease MASN rights to Comcast. This situation has gotten to the point where even a financially unfair armistice is favorable to the continuation of the dispute.

Ownership

What We Know: MLB finally selected the Lerners and Stan Kasten as the new owners of the team back in May. In typical MLB fashion, the official handover of the team has dragged on for weeks, and there is still no firm date on which the team will officially belong to Lerner.

What We Don’t Know: We don’t know for sure when the team will officially belong to Lerner and Kasten, but the incoming President is forging ahead with the Grand Re-Opening of RFK Stadium on July 21. It seems likely that the official transfer will happen before that date, but no one knows for sure.

The Big Questions: What kind of owner will Lerner be? Will he be frugal or will he pour money into the team? How far will Stan Kasten go in his efforts to rebuild the team?

My Take: Many fans were outraged that Stan Kasten decided to retain Jim Bowden. The comments of various Nats blogs were filled with self-entitled whining about how Kasten and the Lerners must be cheap and don’t care about the fans. We really can’t read too much into what the Lerner regime will be like based on the decision to keep Bowden. The plans for the Grand Re-Opening look pretty nice and it seems like the new owners genuinely want to improve the Washington Baseball Experience. It’s way too early to issue praise or condemnation of the new owners.

Jim Bowden

What We Know: The erstwhile Interim GM of the Nats has been retained by team President Stan Kasten. Bloggers are pissed.

What We Don’t Know: Bowden’s reputation as a maverick has always been predicated on his lack of resources and/or interim status. He now has money to spend, job security, and a mandate to rebuild the franchise.

The Big Question: Will Bowden become more conservative in his trades, signings and roster moves, or will he continue to try to make a big splash?

My Take: Despite my misgivings, I’m giving him a second chance here. The month of July and the upcoming off-season will tell us everything we need to know about the rest of the Bowden era.

Frank Robinson

What We Know: Stan Kasten has been mum on his intentions regarding Cap’n Hook other than to say that the GM will make that decision, and Bowden has all but declared that Frank is a goner. Bowden has Davey Johnson waiting in the wings, and it seems likely that the former O’s, Dodgers and Reds manager will be the next Nats skipper.

What We Don’t Know: It’s unclear whether or not Frank Robinson will continue to have a role with the Nationals.

The Big Questions: Will Frank be replaced before the end of the year or will Bowden let him ride out the season? Will Frank be offered a Front Office position with the team and if so, would he accept?

My Take: I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bowden replace Frank as soon as the Lerners officially take over. Davey Johnson’s contract expires July 31, just in time to be replaced with a new contract as manager. From a baseball perspective, there is nothing to be gained by keeping Frank around to grind out the season, and it might be wise to get Johnson a head start on next spring. It might be nice to have Frank stick around in the front office, but I’m getting pretty tired of his swollen sense of entitlement. If he can help the team, keep him around, but don’t hang onto him just for PR’s sake.

If you're still reading this, give yourself a gold star! Anyone have any other plot lines that I missed?